The Academy Awards may be the gold standard for the film industry, but for my money, the Golden Globes is the most entertaining awards show to watch. I am excited to see Ricky Gervais back hosting and hope he offends everyone in the room, because nothing is funnier to me than people being offended over jokes. But I am not here to tell you how much I love Ricky Gervais. I am here to tell you who I think will be taking home the awards Sunday, January 10th.
Look, I know the Globes deal with film and television, but this is going to be film only predictions. I don’t watch enough TV or follow the trends to give qualified predictions, so this is going to be something I do follow. Let’s start at the top.
Best Picture – Drama
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant
At this point, I’m choosing Spotlight out of default. Nothing this awards season has proved to me that Spotlight is not an almost universally liked movie. There is a chance the HFPA may go with The Revenant, depending on if the support is there just for Leo or the whole movie. I think this one is fairly tied up.
Best Picture – Comedy or Musical
- The Big Short
- The Martian
This category is an actual two horse face between The Big Short and The Martian. When the nominations came out, I easily would’ve chosen The Martian, but The Big Short has had the best awards season of any movie so far. Its prospects grow with every passing nomination, and I think it starts winning things here.
- Todd Haynes – Carol
- Alejandro González Iñáritu – The Revenant
- Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
- George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
- Ridley Scott – The Martian
I’m taking a risk here. Most people are predicting Ridley Scott to win for The Martian. He hasn’t won before, and he is a legend. However, I am going with George Miller. When critics groups were giving their awards to Miller, everyone understood that it would remain there but not trickle over to the guilds and industry. That has not been the case. Mad Max: Fury Road managed a Best Picture nomination, and it is difficult for people to ignore the directorial achievement that film is. So, it’s not a lot of people’s first choice, but I’m going for George Miller.
Best Actress – Drama
- Cate Blanchett – Carol
- Brie Larson – Room
- Rooney Mara – Carol
- Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
- Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
This is Brie Larson’s to lose. Many of the foreign press that vote may relate a lot to Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn, but Larson is so powerful in the film and has been campaigning all over I can’t see it going any other way.
Best Actress – Comedy or Musical
- Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
- Melissa McCarthy – Spy
- Amy Schumer – Trainwreck
- Maggie Smith – The Lady in the Van
- Lily Tomlin – Grandma
This is a battle between the biggest star in the world and the biggest star of the moment. Jennifer Lawrence has already won twice at the Globes, but this one will be going to Amy Schumer. The Globes do not have a proper TV category to accommodate her show, so this would be a good place to give her an award. The support for Joy is nowhere to be found, so I think Schumer has the edge. I also would not be surprised if Maggie Smith wins, especially if the reports are true she will actually be at the ceremony (something she never, ever does).
Best Actor – Drama
- Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
- Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
- Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
- Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
- Will Smith – Concussion
The Globes like Leo. This is perceived to be his year. If Leo doesn’t win, that is a huge blow. But he will.
Best Actor – Comedy or Musical
- Christian Bale – The Big Short
- Steve Carell – The Big Short
- Matt Damon – The Martian
- Al Pacino – Danny Collins
- Mark Ruffalo – Infinitely Polar Bear
The Martian has to go home with something, and this will be the place where it does. Matt Damon has never won an acting award, and everyone likes him. Steve Carell could pose to be a threat, but he may split some votes with his costar Christian Bale. There is a small vocal support for Al Pacino, but I don’t think it is hardly enough. Mark Ruffalo is there to pad out the category.
Best Supporting Actress
- Jane Fonda – Youth
- Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
- Helen Mirren – Trumbo
- Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina
- Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
Until the day before this article goes up, I had Jennifer Jason Leigh winning, but The Hateful Eight continues to be ignored this awards season (which is sad, being my favorite film of the year). My winner is now Alicia Vikander. 2015 was the year of Vikander, and when a person is nominated for multiple awards at the Globes, chances are he or she wins one. She does not have much of a shot in lead, but supporting is such a wide open category that she could grab it.
Best Supporting Actor
- Paul Dano – Love and Mercy
- Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation
- Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
- Michael Shannon – 99 Homes
- Sylvester Stallone – Creed
The HFPA want Stallone on that stage. It’s a great narrative to push, and this could guarantee him an Oscar nomination. Elba and Rylance could sweep in as well, but they also battle it out in a TV category. So, I think this one is Stallone’s.